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The overall supply of China's agricultural products market is relatively abundant in 2018
业 农村部召开新闻发布会，市场与信息化司司长唐珂通报了2018年重.点农产品市场运行情况和2019年市场展望，并就相关情况回答记者提问。 On January 16, the Ministry of Agriculture, Industry and Rural Affairs held a press conference. Tang Ke, the director of the Department of Markets and Information Technology, reported the operation of the heavy agricultural products market in 2018 and the market outlook for 2019, and answered reporters' questions about the relevant situation.
改革 的效应开始显现；中美贸易摩擦、非洲猪.瘟 疫情等影响有限。 According to Tang Ke, in 2018 China's agricultural product supply was relatively abundant in general, the market operation remained basically stable, and the price level recovered moderately after falling in 2017. The effects of the reform of the rice and wheat storage and storage system began to appear; Sino-US trade frictions, and African pigs . The impact of the plague is limited. 业农村部监测，2018年我国“农产品批发价格200指数”全年均值为104.4（以2015年为100），比上年高4.2个点；其中“ 菜篮子 ”产品200指数均值为104.8，比上年高4.9个点。 According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average annual value of China's "Agricultural Wholesale Price 200 Index" in 2018 was 104.4 (100 in 2015), 4.2 points higher than the previous year; the average value of the 200 index for " vegetable basket " products was 104.8, 4.9 points higher than the previous year.
The effect of the reform of the storage and storage system shows that the market impact is generally controllable
低收购价有较大幅度下调，政策调整效果开始显现。 In the past year, the extremely low purchase price of wheat has been slightly reduced for the first time, and the very low purchase price of rice has been significantly reduced. The effect of policy adjustment has begun to appear. 早籼稻 和稻谷播种面积分别下降1.0%、6.8%和1.8%，缓解了资源环境压力，促进了结构调整，也有利于 粮食 库存消化。 The sown area of wheat, early indica rice and paddy decreased by 1.0%, 6.8% and 1.8% respectively, which eased the pressure on resources and the environment, promoted structural adjustment, and facilitated the digestion of grain stocks. 早籼稻 开秤价低于去年，后逐步涨至极低收购价水平之上，集中收购期市场均价同比分别降约2%和8%；市场化购销趋于活跃，成为农.民卖粮的主渠道。 The prices of wheat and early indica rice in the main production areas were lower than last year, and gradually rose above the extremely low purchase price level. The average market price during the centralized purchase period decreased by about 2% and 8% year-on-year respectively. . The main channel for people to sell food. 质麦价持续上涨，不少地区都在每斤1.3元以上，优.质优价特征进一步显现。 After the listing of new wheat, the price of premium and quality wheat continued to rise, and many regions were above 1.3 yuan per catty.
低收购价政策是农.民种粮的“定心丸”。 The extremely low purchase price policy is a "centering pill" for farmers and farmers to grow grain. 低收购价政策。 Tang Ke introduced that in 2019, China will continue to improve the extremely low purchase price policy for rice and wheat. 低收购价2018年11月份已经公布，每斤小幅下调3分钱，每斤1.12元；稻谷极低收购将也将于春节前后公布，预计将以稳为主。 The very low purchase price of wheat has been announced in November 2018, with a slight reduction of 3 cents per catty to 1.12 yuan per catty; the very low purchase price of rice will also be announced around the Spring Festival and is expected to be mainly stable. With policy support, the production of rations and the market are expected to continue to be basically stable. The trends of rice and wheat may be different. The level of rice stocks is still relatively high, and the supply-demand relationship is loosened in stages. There is some downward pressure on market prices. After the decline in production and quality of the previous year, the supply and demand tended to be basically balanced. It is expected that the inventory digestion will accelerate in 2019, and the market price is expected to stabilize in a weak state.
低收购价政策的完善，以及各地政府加大优.质粮种植、加工和 营销 等全产业链的支持，我国口粮市场出现了积极变化，产业链的上下游矛盾有所缓解，市场化收购比例不断提高，优.质优价的特征日益显现。 In recent years, with the improvement of the extremely low purchase price policy and the support of local governments to increase the support of the entire industrial chain of high-quality grain cultivation, processing and marketing , China's ration grain market has undergone positive changes, and the upstream and downstream contradictions in the industrial chain have somewhat Mitigation, market-oriented acquisition ratios continue to increase, and the characteristics of superior, high quality and high price are increasingly apparent.
Corn Destocks Exceed Expected Prices Steady and Rising
Affected by the rapid growth of downstream demand and the reduction of planting area, the gap between China's corn production and demand expanded in 2018, the progress of inventory digestion accelerated, and the cumulative turnover of temporary reserve auctions exceeded 100 million tons. The price of corn increased steadily throughout the year, and after the listing of new corn, the purchase price generally rose, and the listing prices of enterprises in Shandong and some parts of Hebei exceeded 1 yuan per catty. However, because the stocks are still at a relatively high level and the market's expectations are relatively reasonable, the price of corn has not skyrocketed. With the increase in the amount of corn listed at the end of the year, the market price has gradually stabilized. In December, the average wholesale prices of domestic production areas and sales areas were 1880 yuan and 2060 yuan per ton, up 11.9% and 9.6% year-on-year.
业农村部组织相关专家分析预测，随着东北地区玉米深加工产能陆续的投产，2018/2019年度我国玉米需求将继续增加，产需存在一些缺口，临储玉米将继续保持较快的消化节奏。 According to Tang Ke, according to the analysis and prediction of relevant experts organized by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, with the continuous production of corn processing capacity in Northeast China, the demand for corn in China will continue to increase in 2018/2019, and there will be some gaps in production and demand. Faster digestive rhythm. Therefore, 2019 is likely to be the end of this round of corn destocking in China, and ending stocks are expected to return to normal levels. Given the expectation of tighter supply and demand and rising prices, 2019 may also be a "turning" year in which China ’s corn production has declined from growth in recent years. It is expected that the area of corn cultivation will be restored under the role of the market mechanism. To some extent increase the supply of corn market.
On the whole, despite the rapid digestion of temporary storage corn, the current corn inventory is still relatively high, and the market has ample supply of grain sources. The annual lack of a substantial rise in corn prices is expected to be mainly stable and rising.
Effectively respond to changes in the international market Stable supply and demand of soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal
美国 大豆进口关税提高、进口量大幅减少，政府、企业等各方积极应对。 In 2018, the US soybean import tariffs increased, and the import volume decreased significantly. The government, enterprises and other parties actively responded. 巴西 等国大豆，有效缓解了供应压力，并通过推广低蛋白 饲料 配方、拓宽蛋白粕来源，降低了下游豆粕需求。 Domestic market entities purchase large quantities of soybeans from Brazil and other countries, which has effectively alleviated the supply pressure, and has reduced the demand for downstream soybean meal by promoting low-protein feed formulas and broadening the source of protein meal. The domestic soybean market is basically stable with no significant fluctuations. The price of imported soybeans rose from 1.67 yuan per catty in January to 1.77 yuan per catty in November, an increase of about 6%, and fell to 1.71 yuan per catty in December.
Tang Ke believes that China's soybean import dependence is relatively high, and the domestic soybean market situation needs to be viewed from a global perspective. 阿根廷 大豆生产恢复，预计比上年度增产约1700万吨。 It is understood that the sowing of South American soybeans in the new year is progressing smoothly and the general situation is normal. Argentina ’s soybean production is recovering. It is expected to increase by about 17 million tons over the previous year. 美国 大豆库存大幅增加，全球大豆供需关系保持宽松。 At the same time, US soybean inventories have increased sharply, and global soybean supply and demand relations have remained loose. It can be predicted that in 2019, China's total imports of soybeans are guaranteed, and the market has a foundation for stable operation.
Tang Ke said that before a large number of South American soybeans went on the market in March, there was still a risk that the international soybean prices would fluctuate significantly due to factors such as weather changes in South America. For domestic soybeans, with the country's increasing support for soybean production, the planting area is expected to continue to increase in 2019, the domestic soybean supply capacity will steadily increase, and the linkage with imported soybean prices may increase. 业农村部也将密切跟踪国内外生产和市场变化，及时发布供需和价格信息，推动尽早出台有关支持政策，引导好生产和市场预期。 The next few months will be a critical period for the preparation of spring cultivation in the main soybean producing areas in Northeast China . The Ministry of Agriculture, Industry and Rural Affairs will also closely track domestic and foreign production and market changes, promptly release supply and demand and price information, and promote the introduction of relevant support policies as soon as possible to guide good production. And market expectations.
猪瘟影响有限 Pork prices are not volatile, Africa has limited impact
猪瘟发生后产销区有所分化”的特征。 In 2018, the overall price of pork showed the characteristics of "decline in the first half of the year, seasonal rebound in the second half of the year, and the differentiation of the production and sales areas after the outbreak of African swine fever". 业农村部监测，全年猪肉批发市场均价为每公斤18.7元，同比跌12.1%；8月份非洲.猪瘟发生后，受活猪跨省禁运措施影响，区域间供需出现不平衡现象，产区跌、销区涨；随着各地改“调猪”为“调肉”，流通渠道逐渐通畅，产销区猪价分化趋缓。 According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average pork wholesale market price for the year was 18.7 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% . After the outbreak of swine fever in Africa in August, affected by the inter-provincial embargo on live pigs, the supply and demand between regions changed. The phenomenon of balance has caused the production area to fall and the sales area to rise. With the localization of "swine" to "meat", the circulation channels have gradually opened, and the price differentiation in production and sales areas has slowed down.
猪瘟疫情发生以来，农.业农村部坚决落实国务院的决策部署，严格落实疫情防控措施，同时加强生猪市场运行监测预警。 Tang Ke introduced that since the outbreak of African swine fever in August last year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has resolutely implemented the decision-making arrangements of the State Council, strictly implemented epidemic prevention and control measures, and strengthened the monitoring and early warning of the operation of the pig market. 猪瘟的影响有限，猪价总体波动不大。 The hog market in 2018 was limited by the effects of Africa and swine fever, and the overall price of pigs did not fluctuate much. It is expected that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the price of hogs will remain stable and drop slightly, and the market supply will be sufficient.
业农村部监测，1月份第2周全国集贸市场活猪平均价格每公斤13.65元，比前一周下降1.6%，连续4周下跌，同比下降11.2%；猪肉价格每公斤23.55元，比前一周下降0.9%，同比下降7.7%。 According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs at the national bazaar market in the second week of January was 13.65 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous week, and fell for the fourth consecutive week, down 11.2% year-on-year; the price of pork was 23.55 yuan per kilogram, It is 0.9% lower than the previous week and 7.7% lower than the same period last year. 场户集中出栏较多；定点监测集贸市场猪肉交易量同比下降14.4%，消费需求偏弱。 In December 2018, the average weight of slaughter pigs nationwide was 124.27 kg, which was at a relatively high level in history, indicating that there was still a phenomenon of slaughter in the main producing areas. The number of slaughter pigs increased by 9.5% over the previous month. The pork transaction volume at the spot-monitored market was down 14.4% year-on-year, and consumer demand was weak. In general, the market is relatively loose in supply and demand, and prices remain generally stable before the Spring Festival without major fluctuations. 猪瘟疫情防控需要，部分地区仍然需要严格控制生猪及其产品的流动，不排除部分销区价格有所上涨的可能性。 Because of Africa's swine fever epidemic prevention and control needs, some regions still need to strictly control the flow of live pigs and their products, and the possibility of price increases in some sales areas is not ruled out.
Tang Ke believes that the value of pigs in the second half of 2019 is optimistic, and it is recommended that farmers raise the pens in a timely manner. 业农村部监测，2018年12月份全国生猪存栏同比下降4.8%；能繁母猪存栏同比下降8.3%，连续3个月跌幅超过5%的预警线，这意味着今年下半年生猪上市量偏少，猪价上涨的可能性较大。 According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in December 2018, the national pig herd on the market decreased by 4.8% year-on-year; the fertile sow herd on the market decreased by 8.3% year-on-year, and the warning line for the third consecutive month fell by more than 5%. Less quantity, the possibility of rising pig prices is greater. In the second week of January, the national average price of piglets was 22.22 yuan per kilogram, a year-on-year decrease of 27.4%, which was at the bottom of the price fluctuation cycle. 非洲.猪瘟 等疫情防控的基础上，可适时调整养殖结构、增加补栏。 For the majority of farmers, based on the prevention and control of epidemic situations such as Africa and swine fever , the farming structure can be adjusted and supplemented in a timely manner. 业农村部也将督促各地进一步落实保障生产供给、畅通种猪和仔猪调运的相关政策，尽量保证肥猪正常出栏，补得了、卖得出，解决广大养殖场户增养补栏的后顾之忧。 The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will also urge all localities to further implement relevant policies to ensure production and supply, smooth the transfer of pigs and piglets, and try to ensure that normal pigs are released, sold, and sold, so as to solve the worries of farmers in the breeding farms.
Vegetable price fluctuations follow seasonal patterns
In 2018, the price of vegetables fluctuated greatly. In the spring and autumn seasons, the prices of some regions and varieties have fallen sharply, and the phenomenon of slow-moving has occurred, but in general it still conforms to the seasonal fluctuation law.
业农村部3月份的监测数据，28种蔬菜全国平均批发价每公斤4.12元，环比跌15.7%，是5年来同期跌幅很大的月份，也是近5年跌幅很大的一个月。 After the Spring Festival in 2018, the price of vegetables fell rapidly. According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture, Industry and Rural Affairs in March, the national average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables was 4.12 yuan per kilogram, a month-on-month decrease of 15.7%, which was a month of great decline over the same period in 5 years. A great drop in the past 5 years. Since the beginning of summer, the continuous high temperature and rain in many parts of the country have had a greater impact on vegetable growth, picking, and transportation. The average wholesale price of vegetables in May was 3.54 yuan per kilogram, which was a relatively high price for the same period in 10 years. In August, major vegetable production areas such as Weifang in Shandong suffered from typhoons and floods, which caused vegetable prices to rise at a high level in the third quarter, and then fell sharply after the fall; the average wholesale price of vegetables in November was 3.52 yuan per kilo, a 13.5% month-on-month decrease, or nearly 10%. The average annual price is more than 6 percentage points lower; in December it was 3.72 yuan per kilogram, up 4.8% month-on-month and 3.3% over the same period, and began to rebound seasonally.
Tang Ke said that the extreme weather caused the superposition of vegetable stubbles and the centralized listing were the main reasons for the sharp fluctuations in vegetable prices in the past year, and also exposed the dysentery with low efficiency in production and market docking. Therefore, it is a difficult long-term task to effectively dock the two ends of production and marketing and solve the problem of "expensive vegetables hurting the people and vegetables cheap and hurt farmers". 农.业农村部 正在与有关部门一起，围绕小农户进入大市场的需要，从产地市场建设、产销信息服务、对接平台搭建、产品品牌提升等多方面入手，建立健全从田头到餐桌的高效供给体系。 At present, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is working with relevant departments to focus on the needs of small farmers to enter the large market, starting from the construction of origin markets, production and marketing information services, the establishment of docking platforms, and the promotion of product brands. Efficient supply system.